Classic RiskOn Move in Currencies; ECB Meeting


Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

On Tuesday I said that the stock market was no longer signalling riskon or riskoff, but rather rotation. Yesterday though the indices were generally higher, and the FX market exhibited a classic riskon profile, with the three commodity currencies on top and USD, CHF and JPY on the bottom.

After one day of recovery in the tech stocks, the stock market was back to selling them. The NYSE FANG , an index of the biggest 10 tech stocks, jumped 6.5 on Tuesday, but yesterday the index fell 1.4. Other sectors were up though for the SP 500, technology hardware equipment 0.6 and semiconductors semiconductor equipment 1.4 were the only two of the 26 broad industry groups in the index to decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, not the bestconstructed stock index but popular with the public, was up 1.5 to close at a record high, while the NASDAQ was down marginally 0.04.

Treasuries were relatively quiet, with 10year yields down less than 1 bp despite a 5 bps rise in 10year inflation expectations. This followed a slightly softerthanexpected US consumer price index, with the core CPI rising 0.1 mom vs 0.2 expected. Yesterdays potentially apocalyptic 38bn auction of 10year notes went off smoothly as prices continued to rise after the auction. Bunds and Gilts yields were also a bp or two lower. Theres a 24bn auction of 30year bonds today.

The dollars weakness bottom of the list on my chart of tradeweighted indices was significant in that it…

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