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Commodity Currencies Rally, GBP Breaks Through 1.40

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Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.

Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

Stock markets were relatively indecisive on Friday but not the FX market FX became noticeably more confident about the recovery as virus cases continued to decline in the West and developed market yield curves continued to bear steepen longend yields rising faster than shortend yields, which are being constrained by central banks on hold. The commodity currencies all gained vs the safehavens, with CHF for once at the bottom of the league. This is often the pattern when interest rate expectations are rising and real yields rising as well.

Another sign that investors expect the recovery to continue the prices of industrial materials, such as copper and timber, are rising rapidly. This may be helped by anticipation of substantial rebuilding in Texas.

Prices of industrial materials are rising much more rapidly than that of safehavens such as gold. This is the normal state of affairs when people expect the economy to recover.

Higher interest rates are weighing on gold by making interestbearing assets more attractive and raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.

One indication of the strength of the commodity currency rally despite the extension of a Toronto lockdown until…

Recovery Bets Drive Dollar to Fresh Lows

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