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Commodity Currencies Up, JPY Down in RiskOn Market

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Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.

Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

Its off to the races! Looking at the stock market pages on Bloomberg, every one is green. Im sure I must have seen that before, but its rare.

And today in Asia too

The Nikkei index of Japanese stocks broke through 30,000 today. The last time it was at this level was Aug. 2, 1990. The market gapped higher at the opening after Japans Q4 GDP came out at 3.0 qoq, beating estimates of 2.4 qoq. The big surprise was in business investment, which rose 4.5 qoq vs 2.4 expected. People often say that stocks always go up in the long term, to which I have always responded which stocks? How long? Because I was working in Tokyo on Dec. 29th 1989 when the Nikkei closed at its record high of 38,916. I havent seen that number again yet. The TOPIX index, a betterconstructed index, hit its record close of 2,885 on Dec. 18th. Its currently at 1,954. So please dont think that stocks always go up in the long term is like a law of physics that holds everywhere and at all times, such as FMA or something like that.

In this ultimate riskon mood, the commodity currencies were the winners and the safehaven USD, JPY and CHF the losers, as one might expect.

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