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GBP Up on Brexit Hopes, USD Down on Riskon; FOMC

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Note  The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts. 

Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

A veryvery riskon market as the US Congress inches towards an agreement on some form of fiscal rescue package. The leaders of the House and Senate talked to each other for the first time in ages. Theyre now talking about a 748bn package that would include 300bn in aid to small businesses and 180bn for unemployment benefits, as well as help for education, healthcare, and certain struggling sectors of the economy, such as airlines. The two most contentious provisions throughout the talks liability protection for companies and aid to state and local governments were stripped out of the proposal to facilitate a solution. However, the package also does not contain direct payments to individuals, which could prove an obstacle to gaining approval.

The positive mood was also bolstered by news that the US Food and Drug Administration FDA had found that Modernas vaccine is highly protective against Covid19. The positive review most likely ensures that the FDA will grant emergency authorization to a second coronavirus vaccine this week. After four consecutive days of losses, the SP 500 was up 1.29 to 3.694.62, not far off last weeks record high of 3,702.25, while the NASDAQ rose 1.25.  

The…

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