JPY Down, Commodity Currencies Up in Reversal Move


Rates as of 0500 GMT

Its the first of July. This year I actually wrote down my New Years resolutions and taped them on the wall in front of me. With half the year gone, how am I doing? Alas, I abandoned three of the five completely, and probably wont achieve the other two. Maybe at the start of the second half of the year Ill take this opportunity to start working again toward my goals. On the other hand, Ive still got some more episodes of Elementary to watch. Which will it be?

Market Recap

The Change today vs change yesterday graph highlights two notable discrepancies

Generally speaking yesterday was a reversal day, with the commodity currencies gaining and JPY retreating. This is what I expected as the initial impact of the rising virus count subsided.

USDJPY broke through the 111line that I highlighted the other day. It will be interesting to see whether this brings in more USDJPY selling from Japanese investors, in which case the pair is likely to go down further, or whether they throw in the towel and close out their positions, which could push USDJPY much higher. I suspect the latter I think they will join with the US speculators hedge funds who are short JPY, which could weaken the currency further.

However within that move, USD, which had been rising along with JPY, didnt go along on the contrary, it continued to gain. This was probably due to endmonth and endquarter portfolio rebalancing, as I highlighted yesterday.

There may also be increasing…

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