NZD, AUD Continue Decline as JPY Rallies; Preliminary PMIs


Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

A fairly typical riskoff day, with the commodity currencies losing ground and JPY USD gaining. The anomalies were CHF, which performed poorly, and to some extent EUR, which didnt fall as much as it might have vs the stronger dollar.

The decline of NZD and AUD that began during the Asian day yesterday continued throughout the day and those two currencies finished at the bottom of the table. In case you dont remember, the trigger was various moves by the NZ government to rein in soaring housing prices through regulatory measures, thereby making it unnecessary to raise rates to accomplish that goal. However, they seem to be bottoming out.

Given their sharp decline yesterday and the surge in JPY, we might see some mean reversion today that could result in a noticeably higher NZDJPY and AUDJPY. There was an unusual amount of AUDJPY activity yesterday, according to CLS, an FX broking firm. They said trading at 1000 GMT yesterday was over 400 higher than usual for that hour.

EUR lost ground against the stronger dollar, but to be honest I wouldve expected it to fall even more. The market is focusing on the bungled rollout of the vaccines in Europe, and particularly the debate over the OxfordAstraZeneca vaccine, which still hasnt been 100 cleared in the US Disclaimer Ive had one shot of it.

Several European countries are going back into partial lockdown as the dreaded fourth wave seems to be approaching.

I think some of the strength…

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