Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
Im always mystified when I see a chart like that above how can six currencies go down and only two go up? And how can the downs go down by so much more than the ups go up? It seems to be a mathematical impossibility. It must be that the tradeweighted indices include more currencies than are in the table eg China, for example.
Moreover, todays FX market movements dont show the usual riskon or riskoff pattern JPY and CHF are down along with the commodity currencies.
Yet yesterday was a big riskoff day. It was a tugofwar for sentiment between two bits of news the passage of the longawaited and muchdoubted fiscal package in the US on the one hand riskon and the news of a more virulent mutant strain of the virus in the UK riskoff. The latter clearly won. One indication the STOXX Europe 600 index plunged 2.33 as European countries cut off their connections with the UK. The US stock market SP 500 was down almost 2 at one point but made a fairly good recovery during the day to close down only 0.39. But the carrythrough has been largely negative this morning and almost all Asian stock markets are lower, except Thailand for some reason. The SP 500 is indicated to open down around 0.7….