Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
The focus this morning is in silver, which gapped higher at the opening on retail buying interest from investors reading the market tips on wallstreetbets. Ive put out a separate piece on silver, explaining why I dont think the fundamentals justify a sharp increase in the price. Of course that doesnt preclude a speculative runup, it just means that the fundamentals probably wont support a much higher price indefinitely. Please read that piece for a more detailed analysis of the issue than I can fit into this daily comment. You can access it by clicking on the links, or its posted in the Market Insights section of our website.
Although stocks in New York closed sharply lower SP 500 down 1.9, NASDAQ off 2.0, the mood in Asia this morning is much improved TOPIX is up 1.2, the Hang Seng 2.3, and KOSPI 2.7. The SP 500 is indicated opening 0.5.
Its a little odd that a runup in precious metals usually a sign of riskoff has sparked a rally in equities, but that seems to be the case. Certainly it wasnt the Chinese data Chinas purchasing managers indices PMIs all missed expectations substantially. Manufacturing PMIs for other countries in the region remained relatively stable though….